Thursday, March 08, 2012

Post Super Tuesday Delegate Roundup

Information is in the eye of the beholder. There are many interpretations of where the delegate battle stands, and certain people spin things one way or the other. Many will not agree with this assessment of the race for GOP delegates, but it is as close as I can get by reading both party rules (for each state) and election returns (or the lack of them). I will not make projections or guesses.

First, the bad news. My calculations indicate Mitt Romney has 322 delegates, Newt Gingrich has 99, Rick Santorum has 90, and Ron Paul has 22. These delegate totals are as of March 7th, 2012. Additionally, there are 258 "unchosen" delegates and 69 "unbound" delegates in states that have already voted. That is the good news - and where Ron Paul has a serious opportunity if his supporters push on. Here is the breakdown. Please note "unchosen" means the delegates will be chosen at a convention on a later date, and "unbound" means they have been chosen and can vote for anyone they want. If you see 3 "unbound", it is likely a State Party Chair, National Committee Man and National Committee Woman from that particular state. The list:

Iowa - 25 unchosen, 3 unbound, June 16th before settled
New Hampshire - done, 2 unbound
South Carolina - done
Florida - done, may be controversy over all 50 delegates winner take all
Nevada - done
Colorado - 36 unchosen, April 14th before settled
Minnesota - 37 unchosen, 3 unbound, May 5th before settled
Missouri - 49 unchosen, 3 unbound, June 2nd before settled
Maine - 24 unchosen, May 6th before settled
Arizona - done
Michigan - done
Washington - 40 unchosen, 3 unbound, June 2nd before settled
Alaska - done
Georgia - done
Idaho - done
Massachusetts - done
North Dakota - 28 unbound, April 1st before settled
Ohio - 10 unbound, others are morally but not legally bound based on primary vote
Oklahoma - done
Tennessee - 12 unchosen, 3 unbound, April 7th to settle
Virginia - done
Vermont - done
Wyoming - 20 unchosen, 2 unbound, April 14th to settle

As you can see, there are a huge number of delegates in play for the states who the media would have you believe are already done. Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, Washington, North Dakota, and large parts of Ohio, Tennessee and Wyoming still have work to do. Even states I have listed as "done" may not be if a candidate drops out. Most of them have also not chosen who the delegates will be yet, just how they will be required to vote. If a candidate drops out, that would "unbind" their delegates for the National Convention. If no one gets a majority of delegates on the first ballot, most (almost all) of the delegates in the above listed states become "unbound" and will have to figure out who to pick. That is becoming an increasingly likely option.

It is virtually impossible for either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich to win outright at this time. Both would need more than 60% of all remaining delegates they are eligible for. This is because they are not on the ballot in all states, and in some states they are not qualified in all districts. Proportional delegate allocation - which all states who vote prior to April 1st are supposed to do - further impedes the three non-Paul campaigns. The Paul campaign is predicated on the rules, and is using them to their advantage. Finally, the Romney campaign is badly hurt by the loss of half the delegates of major early states and proportionality. Just Florida, Michigan and Arizona have lost roughly 110 delegates, and Michigan is also proportional - all Romney wins.

With allegations of fraud and corruption rampant (Iowa, Nevada, Washington, Maine, North Dakota and more) it is critical that those who run for delegate hold the party accountable for honest and fair elections. Keep organized, and keep moving forward. There path to victory requires not only success at the ballot box but more importantly delegate collection at the conventions. Keep up the fight, and remember: Liberty requires vigilance.

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Oklahoma County GOP Convention Recap

An interesting series of events unfolded Saturday at the Oklahoma County GOP Convention. To simplify the schedule, the day began with Registration from 7 am to 9:30 am. At 9 am the Convention was to Convene (or near that time) followed by the report of the Credentials Committee (who gets to be a delegate), the Rules Committee (what rules the Convention will follow), the Platform Committee (what the party will stand for) and various speeches throughout the day. Things did not go as scheduled, however. The problem began with Registration.

Registration issues badges identifying who is a delegate, an alternate, a visitor, and who is in a closed committee or an open one. There were several lines based on precinct membership issuing badges. Since I arrived before 7 am, I was through this process very quickly, as were most people throughout the morning. The usual rush occurred as we approached 9 am. The problem was not the efficiency of Registration, it was the number of people they did not have credentials for. That number was large - of the approximately 340 people in attendance, approximately 60 were required to go through the Credentials Committee for admittance. Of this number, 13 were ultimately rejected. The reason all I spoke to - and there were several - was that their voter registration card showed a date after the Precinct Meeting. In other words, the Precinct Meeting was February 6th, and their voter registration card showed February 15th. The committee was stating they did not have proof that these people were Republicans at the Precinct Meeting.

It should be noted that the Ron Paul campaign had a sign up sheet at the Precinct Meeting. Since many of the people who went before the Credentials Committee were Ron Paul supporters, we knew who they were. We also contacted them prior to the Precinct Meeting with instructions to make sure they were properly registered and to bring their voter registration cards. Additionally, we instructed people to bring their voter registration cards to the County Convention. In other words, we knew they had followed party rules and were registered before the Precinct Meeting, much less yesterday's County Convention.

The Convention waited somewhat patiently for the Credentials Committee to report, with speeches by elected officials in the mean time. As the "reddest state in the country" (all 77 counties voted McCain in 2008) we have quite a few, and many spoke, including: US Senator James Inhofe, Congressman James Lankford, Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb, Labor Commissioner Mark Costello, State Auditor and Inspector Gary Jones, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Janet Barresi, and numerous State Senate and State House members, as well as State GOP Chairman Matt Pinnell. Finally, in the early afternoon, the Credentials Committee report came to the floor - along with word of the 13 "visitors" who did not qualify.

At this point I will insert Rule 3(A) of the Oklahoma Republican Party:  Members: All citizens of Oklahoma are invited to join the Oklahoma Republican Party to perpetuate this Republic. All qualified voters of this state who are registered Republicans are members of the Oklahoma Republican Party, and shall have the right to participate in the official affairs and governance of the Republican Party in accordance with these rules as set forth herein. Such right shall be sacred and inviolate, and the willful disregard or abridgement of such right by an officer or member of any committee of the Party shall be deemed sufficient cause for the removal of such officer or committee member. For the complete rules, click Oklahoma GOP Rules.

With the openness of the party in mind, several concerned delegates including myself crafted an amendment to the Credentials Report. After a lengthy debate, we won a precinct-weighted vote 181 to 174 (about, it had decimals and I didn't write them down). This allowed the coincidentally Ron Paul supporting 13 "visitors" to become delegates. We then voted for the amended credentials report, and some 5 hours after the Credentials Committee began we convened.

The first order of business after the Convention Chair is seated (not County Party Chair Matt Jackson, but County Commissioner Ray Vaughn) is to accept the report of the Rules Committee - or amend it, or decline it. It should be noted that the composition of both the Rules and Credentials Committees was determined by - an unknown person or persons. That is a question that needs to be raised, and I have not asked it yet, but I did sign up for Rules at the Precinct Meeting, and requested via email and text to be on it, and was not "selected" for it. Before the Rules Committee Report was accepted, I authored and submitted (with the help of my associates) a change. Here is the rule prior to my change:

Section IV: ELECTION OF STATE CONVENTION DELEGATES
All accredited Oklahoma County Convention Delegates present at this Convention shall be, and are, hereby elected as Delegates to the 2012 Republican State and District Conventions as an open delegation. Those otherwise qualified to be State Convention Delegates but not attending this Convention may be appointed by order of the Oklahoma County Central Committee. The Oklahoma County Central Committee shall not appoint more than 15% of the number of Delegates selected at the County Convention. Excluded from the 15% tally will be all elected Republican officials. The Delegate list shall close two weeks prior to the State or District Convention.

My first crack at amending this was to strike all you see, leaving only the first line. After consultation with both sides, I changed it (several times) to allow for those who truly were sick or working to attend, and here is the video of my (final) amendment:

Here is a video of me speaking after Cheryl Williams, longtime party activist and former County Chair, current State Committee Woman (and I wish I had her speech - video is by my brother, and he only recorded me with his phone):
Unfortunately, we lost this vote (some people had begun to leave, since most of us had still not eaten all day and we were approaching 4 pm). The tally was about 155 to 152. Many people were seriously upset by this amendment, in it's first form particularly, since it would have prevented anyone who was NOT in attendance from being a delegate at State or District. This includes the Governor, Mary Fallin. It would also have prevented the Central Committee from "stacking" the 5th District and State Conventions with supporters of one particular side or another. It remains to be seen if the process of selecting these additional 15% of delegates - who now only have to be "otherwise qualified" to attend both Conventions - will be an equitable process. Numerous interested parties will be watching closely.

The remaining business was uneventful, and their were no arguments on the platform - even the proposed resolution by Labor Commissioner Costello calling on all elected Republicans to refuse contributions from the PAC of the Oklahoma Public Employees Association or the Oklahoma Education Association, beginning in May 2012, or face withholding of campaign funds from the State Party. For some reason this has been seen as controversial, even though the unions are hardly a friend of the GOP. They do seem to think PAC contributions help their postions, however.

Here is a final (and professionally done) video covering this convention, from another perspective:

There are many party "regulars" who were accepting, and some who were not. The Republican Party, nation-wide, is trying to come to grips with a wave of discontent. That wave is diverse, young, and irreverent. They believe in growing Liberty, and reducing government. They are much better educated than you would believe - ask them what monetary policy is, and sit down to listen. They stand for the Rule of Law, not cronyism, so if you are one who makes a living in the world of favors, they have your job on the cutting block. Some, like Oklahoma State Chairman Matt Pinnell, recognize this movement and seek to merge their enthusiasm with the wealth of experience multiple decade party activists possess. Others seek to exclude them, but they should remember that these new activists are giving them exactly what they claim to want: a return to the keeping of Oaths, a restoration of the Rule of Law, Free Markets, and Constitutional government and money.

See you at the polls on Super Tuesday, and at the 5th District Convention on March 31st!

Thursday, March 01, 2012

Oklahoma County GOP Convention Details

Saturday, March 3rd will bring the Oklahoma County GOP Convention to the Marriott. A large crowd of several hundred Republicans are expected to unite in their efforts to bring about the speedy retirement of President Obama. The County is the second of four stages of meetings that determine Oklahoma's representation at the GOP National Convention. First, the details:

Registration:  7 am to 9:30 am
Convention Convenes: 9 am
Location: Marriott Hotel Ballroom, NE Corner of NW Expressway and Independence, OKC
Cost: $10

Delegates should bring their voter registration card or a printout from the election board to prove they're Republicans, a valid picture ID (think driver's license) and the $10 fee for attending  (which I assume defrays the cost of the convention).

Major votes at the convention will be: accept (or not) the report of the credentials committee (who gets in or not); accept (or not) the report of the rules committee (very possible there will be amendments here); and the big one, determining who goes on to the next conventions (District and State) where the National Delegates are elected. It is possible it will be anyone who wants to go, or it could be a much more select list. That is part of the fun - I look forward to seeing you there!

Sunday, February 26, 2012

The Delegate Race: Arizona and Michigan, and "Brokered" vs. "Open" Conventions

Tuesday, February 28th marks the next phase in the GOP election process, with the primaries in Arizona and Michigan. It is becoming clear to many that the likelihood of an open convention is increasing. A "brokered" convention and an "open" convention are two very different things, and this has been miss-reported by the major media. Of note is that both of these states will pay a penalty of half of their Delegates due to the date of their elections. First, on to Arizona!

Arizona has 29 Delegates available after the penalty for holding their primary early. This is a closed primary. It is unclear as to the final method of compliance with RNC rules (a state holding a primary before April 1st is required to award Delegates proportionally) but as it stands, all 29 Delegates go to the popular vote winner, and are bound for the 1st ballot at the National Convention. Here is the official Arizona Republican Party Bylaws.

Michigan losses half of their Delegates due to the date of their primary. They will award 30 Delegates proportionally based on the following formula: 28 Delegates come from the 14 Congressional Districts (2 per District) and are awarded to whoever gets the most votes in that District. The remaining 2 Delegates are "State" Delegates and are awarded proportionally, with a threshold of 15% to be eligible (which means that the party is trying to skirt the proportional rule and be a winner take all state). All 30 Delegates are bound for the 1st ballot at the National Convention.

An issue that needs to be addressed is the growing concern there will be a "brokered" convention in Tampa. This is not possible - and is an attempt to create confusion and control the process of selecting the nominee. A "brokered" convention would be like this: during the 1st ballot (where each State is called on by the Chair) no candidate receives a majority. The candidates and other powerful party types then get together and make deals to come up with a nominee, and the candidate pledges his Delegates to someone else to achieve a majority. So, for example, Jon Huntsman received 2 Delegates in New Hampshire, and he could pledge those to Mitt Romney, giving Romney 2 more Delegates to get to a majority. Except, he can't. It no longer works that way. His 2 Delegates are now "unbound" and may vote their conscience.

From Michigan's rules on Delegates (via The Green Papers): Delegate binding: Delegates are bound to their Presidential preference from the start of the nominating process through the end of the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Delegates may not amend their Preference unless released from that commitment. Delegates become officially uncommitted if their Presidential candidate is either not allocated delegates or looses his/her delegates. Presidential candidates may not be allocated National Convention delegates if they withdraw, suspend their campaign, endorse another Presidential candidate, or seek the nomination of another political party for any political office.

Most states have similar rules, but it is different for each one, so check your state or keep checking here. What this means is that after the first ballot, Michigan Delegates are officially and legally UNBOUND. Some states (Maine with 24 Delegates, for example) are unbound from the start.


Instead of a Brokered Convention which is no longer possible by GOP rules, if no candidate on the 1st ballot gets a majority we will have an OPEN convention. Each Delegate will then be legally able to vote their conscience, based on the rules from their states.


The Establishment fears an Open Convention more than anything, for it means the actual Delegates will chose instead of politicians, the media, or back room power brokers. The Convention can then nominate ANYONE, whether they have been a candidate or not up to that point, or they can unite behind one of the current candidates. It will certainly be an interesting convention!

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Ron Paul OKC Rally Report

Ron Paul in front of the Oklahoma State Capitol
The rEVOLution to Restore the Republic arrived in OKC today! Estimates before he began speaking were above 3000 people. Organized by grassroots groups and the national campaign working in concert, a series of speakers highlighted Dr. Paul's message of Freedom and Liberty, prior to his arrival.
Al Gerhart
The first speaker of the day was Al Gerhart, who spent some time outlining strategy and inviting everyone to be involved. Mr. Gerhart is the State Coordinator of the National Campaign, a new role following up his efforts with the Sooner Tea Party.
Kaye Beach
Next up was Kaye Beach, activist extraordinaire, who spoke passionately on involvement in the process. Kaye is a tireless fighter for Liberty at the Oklahoma State Capitol. Her blog is AxXiom for Liberty.

Oklahoma GOP Chairman Matt Pinnell
Following Kaye was a rousing and welcoming speech by the Chairman of the Republican Party of Oklahoma, Matt Pinnell. Chairman Pinnell recognizes our mission to defeat Barrack Obama, and has been very fair to all of the campaigns in their efforts in Oklahoma. He has a difficult job balancing interests, and has managed to keep the peace very well.
State Representative Mike Christian
State Representative Mike Christian, State Senator Ralph Shortey, and State Representative Charles Key all three spoke and endorsed (or have in the past) Congressman Paul. Rep. Key also read a message from 2010 GOP candidate for Governor and former State Senator Randy Brogdon in support of Dr. Paul.

State Representative Charles Key
State Representative Mike Christian (and son)

Ron Paul, no telepromter. TOTUS is worried.
Finally, Dr. Paul joined us to chants of "Ron Paul! Ron Paul! Ron Paul!" He delivered a non-telepromtered address covering the gamut of Freedom and Liberty. Speaking from the heart, he recounted the sad condition and erosion of our liberties, and the proud heritage they sprang from. His well received remarks, occasionally interrupted by thunderous cheers and applause, recounted his personal inspiration for entering politics and his efforts through these long years. As his supporters know, he has long been a lone voice in the wilderness, especially on such issues at the Federal Reserve, the IRS, and the tie between personal liberties and freedom.
Volunteer Jennifer Senn fights the wind and stabilizes the banner!
Farewell Oklahoma, on to Michigan!

Yes, we have oil under our Capitol. Crowd to my SW.
Crowd to my SE.
Crowd to my east - flags are snapping in the wind!
As the wind swept over the crowd, Dr. Paul finished his remarks with an appeal to continued involvement. His next stop is in Michigan this evening - good luck Congressman!

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Ron Paul - Friend of Israel

In an unstable Middle East, Israel is the one anchor of stability. In a region of shifting alliances, Israel is America’s unwavering ally. Israel has always been pro-American. Israel will always be pro-American. My friends, you don’t have to -- you don’t need to do nation-building in Israel. We’re already built. You don’t need to export democracy to Israel. We’ve already got it. And you don’t need to send American troops to Israel. We defend ourselves. - Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, speech to the US Congress, May 24th, 2011

Of all the objections to Ron Paul, perhaps the most prevalent one is in regards to Israel. This can become a very complicated subject, and it is often made that way to confuse and mislead. Arguably, the focus should be on three key things:

Israel's right to exist.
Israel's right to self govern.
Stop helping Israel's enemies.

On June 7th, 1981, Israel performed a daring raid (Operation Opera) on the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak. I won't go into all the details here, since there are books written about  it, but this much is clear: the world condemned Israel. The UN Security Council (unanimous, Security Resolution 487), the US State Department, pretty much everyone - except Ron Paul. He publicly broke with President Reagan, most allied leaders including Margaret Thatcher, and our own government in praising Israel's right to exit and determine their own course. Ron Paul believes in Israel's right to exist.

The government of the United States has continuously and repeatedly tried to tell Israel how to conduct itself with her own people and her neighbors. Our government has called for a division of Jerusalem, and return to 1967 borders, the end of construction in "captured" lands - and we have no right to do this. Much of the land Israel "occupies" it captured when attacked by other nations. They have held it as a security measure. Regardless of whether you think this is the right thing to do or not, it is between Israel, her people, and her neighbors. Ron Paul believes in Israel's right to self govern.

Foreign Aid is a part of the federal budget that most conservatives have wanted to end for a long, long time. Most of us would like to end the United Nations as well. After all, making the world "safe for democracy" was a goal of Woodrow Wilson, and it has carried forward with every Progressive/Liberal ever since. Crazily, many in the GOP now support Foreign Aid (which I should remind you is paid with borrowed money) because Israel gets some of that money. Well, here's some facts, from the 2012 Statistical Abstract of the Census Bureau: in 2010 we gave Israel $2,692 million ($2.692 Billion) in grants and credits. Ron Paul opposes that - but he also opposes: $802 million for Jordan, $119 million for Lebanon, $48 million for Yemen, $687 million for West Bank/Gaza Regional, $2942 million for Iraq, $10,862 million for Afghanistan, $1216 million for Egypt, $1528 million for Pakistan, $46 million for Turkey -  I'll stop there but those are countries that are at a minimum not friends with Israel, and the total for them is $18,250 million ($18.25 Billion). I have not included our "contribution" to the UN, but that certainly doesn't help Israel, nor have I included other countries in Central Asia, other African countries, and organizations (NGO's) not friendly to Israel. You tell me - is Israel better off with us giving her $2.692 Billion and giving her enemies $18.25 Billion, or would Israel be better off if we stopped all foreign aid? Ron Paul wants to stop helping Israel's enemies.

There are many people who have a vested interest in American Empire. It may be a financial interest, or a religious interest, or a political interest - but it is not in the interest of the American people. As a nation, we are going broke while we try to police the world, defending countries that are fully capable of defending themselves, and giving money to countries that don't need our help as well as our enemies. It is time to bring sanity back to the Republican Party, in the tradition of Robert Taft, Dwight Eisenhower, and the Founding Fathers. I leave you with the famous quote from Thomas Jefferson's First Inaugural Address (March 4th, 1801):

Equal and exact justice to all men, of whatever state or persuasion, religious or political; peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none

Monday, February 20, 2012

Ron Paul in Oklahoma February 25th, 2012

Ron Paul is scheduled to be at the Oklahoma State Capitol on February 25th at noon. He will be speaking in the House Chamber. Please plan on attending, and bring friends!